I am very interested in how information technology will be used in the future.

And, of course, to have a better understanding of what may transpire in the future, it helps to have a grasp on what has happened in the past and what is happening right now.

I also think that we can better understand information technology if we can step back and better understand the role that technology (in the big picture) has played in human life.

Here are some of my thoughts - and those of others - about the future.

Understanding the Past and the Present

When the "industrial revolution" was occurring, did people really have much understanding of what the long-term effects of the new production technologies and organizational structures would mean?

I don't think so. No more than people understood what a simple invention - the printing press - would unleash in 1440.

Some of the quotes from early in the computer era indicate the lack of comprehension that existed then. For example:

"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."
- Popular Mechanics, 1949

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

"I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processings is a fad that won't last out the year."
- The editor in charge of business books for Prentice-Hall, 1957

"But what...is it good for?"
- Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of DEC

This is a starting point for discussion about if/how those of us who research and teach about information technology today have a better understanding than those who came before :)